Age of The Nerd
It’s that time of year everyone! We here at the Age of the Nerd really love movies, if you couldn’t tell, and obviously want to be a part of any celebration of the form. What better way to do that than to predict the 90th Academy Awards!
Each AOTN writer has painstackingly researched, studied analytics, and cross referenced with national databases to get their predictions air tight…or we just kind of guessed based on how we’re feeling.
The winner? Fame, glory, and all that glitters (virtually anyway).
The loser? Well, they’ve gotta write this year’s Oscars recap article.
LET THE GAMES BEGIN!
S. Christian Roe’s Predictions:
Note: I have reasons for picking these that I’ll illustrate below, but some categories don’t have a reason other than gut instinct.
Best Picture: The Shape of Water
The Shape of Water won both PGA and DGA awards already. Those are the two largest predictors for who’s gonna take home Oscar gold. While they’ve been wrong in the past, this is just out there enough to appeal to younger voters, but classic enough for the original members to love.
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Gary Oldman – The Darkest Hour
He’s paid his dues by this point and this is one of the weaker years for Lead Actor performances. While his make-up did most of the heavy lifting, Oldman did feel like Churchill. The only other contender could be Timothée Chalament, but he’s got his whole life ahead of him to win this.
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Francis McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
This was my favorite film of last year and I have to give it up to the incredible performance by McDormand. While Hawkins did a great job playing an entirely silent role, you just can’t beat a mother on an insane revenge tale.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
There’s no doubt about Three Billboards being a more performance driven film and with Rockwell, an underrated Hollywood gem, stealing every scene he’s in, there’s no way this won’t be his.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Allison Janney – I, Tonya
The Academy loves abusive mom stories. Look a few years ago and you’ll see that trend going in full swing. However, they also love when a renowned TV star can make the shift to features and make it work. And boy, did that mama make it work.
Best Animated Feature Film: Coco
By no means was I as blown away by Coco as I was hoping to be. Honestly, I liked Boss Baby more, but that was more to do with the fact that they really embraced the medium they were in. Coco felt like a retread of a less grim The Corpse Bride, but it’s Pixar. So, come on.
Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins – Blade Runner 2049
This is someone the academy has wanted to award for years, but didn’t have a good enough reason. Now? They’ve run out of excuses. The only other choice they could make would be for Rachel Morrison, being the first female to ever be nominated, but a few breathtaking shots in a bland film can’t beat a multitude of breathtaking shots in a bland film.
Best Costume Design: Mark Bridges – The Phantom Thread
Despite the film being a bit up its own corset, The Phantom Thread did have some incredible costumes. However, did enough people see the film to champion it? Also, it’s an entire film about dress making, if it doesn’t win, then that’s a bit off the mark, isn’t it?
Best Directing: Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water
Usually the Directing and Best Picture categories go hand in hand, but there have been some upsets. However, the tightness of The Shape of Water and how it’s singular vision for the world really show a director knowing what to do. Everything worked and I can’t wait to see how excited Del Toro will be when he finally gets to hold the statue.
Best Documentary: Faces Places
In today’s political climate, we may want to lean more towards a happier understanding of the world around us and those that inhabit it. That’s where Faces Places shines more than most. And as unfortunate as this is, most people just vote for Docs based on their title. True fact.
Best Documentary Short: Edith + Eddie
The shorts tend to be a bit of a crap shoot. However, one thing that’s certain, if your short has laurels of any kind, it’s usually a good indicator that you’ll be taking home gold.
Best Editing: Dunkirk
The Academy despartely wants to give Nolan something for Dunkirk, and this will be it. It’s three non-linear stories balanced fairly well, so that alone gives it an edge here.
Best Foreign Language Film: The Square
Robbed a few years back, Ruben Östlund will take the Academy Award for his biting satire about the world of modern art.
Best Make-up and Hairstyling: Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick – The Darkest Hour
The make-up did all the heavy lifting. Simple as that.
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: Mystery of Love – Call Me By Your Name
It’s between this and Coco’s song, but this one has been getting a lot more outside attention.
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Short Film (Animated): Revolting Rhymes
Best Short Film (Live Action): The Silent Child
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
For that really uncomfortable threesome scene.
Best Writing (Adapted): Call Me By Your Name
They’ll want to give it something aside from the song and it is a really beautiful script.
Best Writing (Original): Get Out
In a similar vein, this is something that the Academy wants to award, but doesn’t have many categories to pick from. The only other winner that could be would be Lady Bird, but people aren’t talking about the script as much as they are talking about Ronan’s performance and Gerwig’s conscise vision. Get Out was inventive and different and the Academy will award it here, simply because they can’t let that film leave without something.
David’s Predictions:
Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Honestly, as long as the don’t F*** up the envelopes again, I don’t even really care who wins this year. (I am almost ready to begin being over that!) Well, I think I may have to eat some crow, or not, because I basically predicted a while back, that, whoever wins Best Original Screenplay was going to win Picture, and I still kinda believe that, but I’m probably not going to listen to myself again and split those two anyway. Anyway, most pundits have it between four contenders, “Get Out”, “Lady Bird”, “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards….” with the latter currently leading on the Gold Derby odds. So, we’re gonna get either #OscarSoBlack, #OscarSoFemale, #OscarsSoStillSortaRacist, or weirdest one of all, #OscarsSo-um,eh,soFishF***ers? (Shrugs) Honestly, despite Del Toro a shoe-in for Director, I’m not buying “The Shape of Water” winning; that lack of a SAG Ensemble nomination is a red flag everyone ignored last year, and I’m not falling for that again. Frankly I think it’s between “Get Out” and “Three Billboards….” and this is a very close race; I wouldn’t be surprised by either winning here, I was picking “Get Out” for the longest time, but BAFTA came out is when I finally switched. Not just because McDonagh won Writing there, that was as-expected, but “Three Billboards…” won both Best Film and Best British Film there, which is shockingly rare, even when it seems like it would be obvious. (For instance, “Slumdog Millionaire” winning Best Film but losing British Film to “Man on Wire”; they like to split that up.) Last year that didn’t happen was “The King’s Speech”, and we tried to dismiss BAFTA that year for, well, being British and sure enough it won. That and a SAG win, I think are too much for “Get Out” to overcome, which is gonna hopefully fight to get the consolation Writing prize. #OscarsStillSortaRacist takes it this year by a nose.
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Gary Oldman – The Darkest Hour
I’ve heard Timothee Chalamet’s campaigning everywhere trying to scrounge enough votes to Eddie Redmayne this thing, but you know, here’s the thing, Hollywood didn’t want to give it to Michael Keaton, but they really, really do want to give it to Gary Oldman. Chalamet’s young, so is Kaluuya, they’ll be back. Again, don’t overthink it, he’s won everywhere, including SAG, including BAFTA, including the Globes, he’s playing Winston Churchill,….
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Francis McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wow, Saoirse Ronan’s got three career acting nominations and she was born in 1994. She’s not 24 yet. She’s not gonna win, I just wanted to make all of us including myself feel incredibly sad about our lives and what little we’ve accomplished with them. (I should post a Saffy Herndon video here, just to warn you all of what’s coming, but-, eh.) I do think she’s in the race actually, but it seems like McDormand’s just riding the trend and is everyone’s favorite and has, as usual, won everything and everywhere that matters. Sally Hawkins might be an interesting second choice here, but I’m just not seeing it. Better luck next year Meryl.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Look, if “All the Money in the World” had gotten anything else, I might’ve thought to consider Plummer here, but it’s just a F*** you nomination to Spacey, and you know what, fine. Plummer’s already won, so he’s out and that leaves four beloved amazing characters actors to choose from. I can scenarios for all of them, but again, don’t overthing, Sam Rockwell’s won all the biggest prognosticators going in,- there could be a vote split between him and Harrelson, maybe, btw, the last time two nominees in this category came from the same film was 1991 with Keitel and Kingsley for “Bugsy” and the last time somebody won in this category against a cast mate, you gotta go back to 1980 when Timothy Hutton pulled the upset win over Judd Hirsch, both were up for “Ordinary People”, but Sam Rockwell has been an innovative and original actor for a long time now, actors want to honor him, finally they have a chance, they’re taking it.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Okay, this is the one category where there’s basically been one heavy favorite winning everything that I’m a little hesistant on, ’cause even though Allison Janney has won pretty much everything, every indication otherwise says that this race might be close between her and Laurie Metcalf. I think there might’ve been a few outstanding votes for Lesley Manville, but if she can’t win at BAFTA I can’t figure out how she’d win here. I think Laurie Metcalf is finally campaigning, she’s been doing a play for most of the Oscar seasons, but Allison Janney has such an advantage in the ground game that I think it’s just too late. They’re both very similar roles, evil mother parts, plus these are two similar actresses with similar backgrounds, and a history of winning. Metcalf, people forget won like three Emmys in a row for “Roseanne” years ago, and who knows, she might win again now that that’s back, and Allison Janney, she’s like tied the Emmy record right now, and who knows “Mom”‘s still going, she might keep it up. If they want to honor “Lady Bird”, and I think the Oscars do, this is the most likely scenario, but god, even if Laurie Metcalf was an unstoppable force, she’s running into a brick wall going up against Allison Janney. And let me tell ya, you ask anybody in town who truly are the best actors around, like, they might say Meryl first, but second or third, they’re saying Allison. They know how talented she really is, and that’s half the reason why she wins everything, and I don’t see that changing here.
Best Animated Feature Film: Coco
This is another easy one, “Coco” is the only film of the nominees that’s consistently showed up everywhere, it’s won more awards, it’s the most popular and most-well known of the nominees, it’s a nominee elsewhere, the fact that it’s Pixar helps…- this is a relatively easy call. If there is a second choice, it’s probably split between “The Breadwinner” and “Loving Vincent”…; don’t overthink….
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Don’t overthink it, they want to give it to Roger Deakins, it’s his fourteenth nomination, he’s never won, they’ve promoted that fact, literally since before the film was made. “Dunkirk” or “The Shape of Water” might be in for spoilers, for Deakins hasn’t lost anywhere, including the Guild.
Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Costume Design is interesting. The Costume Designers Guild went with “Wonder Woman” upsetting “Beauty and the Beast”, so that’s out, with “The Shape of Water” upsetting “Phantom Thread”, with an outside win for “I, Tonya”, which didn’t get nominated. I think it is between “The Shape of Water” and “Phantom Thread”, gut instinct tells me they’ll pick the film where the costumes are more important, other gut tells me the one with the most costumes. This could go a couple ways, the category does have a history of going against the Guilds and trends, Gold Derby’s leaning towards “Phantom Thread” and I think that makes the most sense.
Best Directing: Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water
Don’t overthink it. Del Toro’s won everywhere he can, including DGA which has gotten it’s prediction wrong once since 2000, and that was the year Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated for “Argo”. The rule of Picture and Director automatically matching has been long out the window for years.
Best Documentary: Faces Places
Okay, this one’s a little tricky because one of the presumptive favorites, “Jane” didn’t get into this category, so it’s a bit up in the air, and there’s reasons to vote for each of these. “Abacus…” could get the votes as a long overdue makeup to Steve James, who the Documentary Branch has been screwing with since “Hoop Dreams”, they could go to “Strong Island” which would make Yance Ford the first openly trans filmmaker to win an Oscar, but there’s also “Icarus” a timely film about Russia’s Olympic steroid scandal, also, “Last Men in Aleppo” is about Syria and is about the same subject as last year’s short subject winner, “The White Helmets”, those last three are all streaming on Netflix btw, so there’s that. “Faces Places” has to be the current favorite though, that’s a film by the great Agnes Varda, who the Academy just gave an Honorary Oscar to, and again, there’s years of make up that could be done if they were to finally reward that French New Wave pioneer. So, it’s a bit of a toss-up, but I think I’m going with “Faces Places”, just because I think they’re in a mood to honor Agnes Varda, above everything else.
Best Documentary Short: Edith + Eddie
“Edith + Eddie” is the only one of these I haven’t seen, and the favorite. Of the others, I thought “Heaven is a Traffic Jame on the 405” was the weakest, but that’s the second choice on Gold Derby, so what do I know. I’m just gonna play this one safe and go with the one that’s won elsewhere.
Best Editing: Dunkirk
This was the other category that hurt “Get Out” and “Lady Bird” Best Picture predictions. Only once since “Ordinary People” has a film won Best Picture without an Editing nomination, and that was “Birdman…” which didn’t have much any editing in it. “Dunkirk”, war movie, won at A.C.E. Eddies, Lee Smith is overdue, that’s a favorite. “I, Tonya” upset “Baby Driver” at A.C.E. Eddies, still wouldn’t be shocked by that upset though, but I think “Baby Driver”‘s more viable in Sound categories. It’s possible for something to win without a Best Picture nod, normally it’s some kind of chase or mystery movie though, like “The Bourne Ultimatum” or the year “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”, won, I’m not seeing that here.
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
This is always a tricky category. Name-wise, if we’re going by Director’s, I’d imagine “The Square” and “Loveless” are favorites, for different reasons. “A Fantastic Woman” is the most easily available, currently on Netflix I believe and is probably the least divisive and most enjoyable of the group. Chile’s an interesting film country anyway, that’s in the midst of a modern Renaissance, they might want to honor that. “The Insult” is Lebanon’s first ever nomination, and that looks like something I can see them voting for. GoldDerby has “A Fantastic Woman” pulling away with “The Square” and “Loveless” as their second choices. I can see it either way, “The Square” has some noted American actors, most notably Elisabeth Moss in it, but that didn’t help the Diane Kruger movie that didn’t get in here. I can’t imagine Hollywood’s in the best mindset to honor Russia at the moment. Hmm, this is a bit of a toss-up, but I’m gonna go with “A Fantastic Woman” until Sweden wins for a film that’s not made by Ingmar Bergman.
Best Make-up and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Don’t overthink this one, most makeup and most obvious makeup usually wins, and it doesn’t hurt if it’s a Best Picture nominee, especially if the centerpiece of that film is a performance with a lt of makeup involved.
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
This is one category I’m not entirely sure about. “The Shape of Water” seems to have the momentum and it’s definitely between that, “Phantom Thread” and “Dunkirk”, but I’m not exactly sure why. A few weeks ago “Dunkirk” seems like an easy call here, but “The Shape of Water” is the one picking up the most steam. I think it’s between those two, and basically a coin flip.
Best Original Song: “This is Me” – The Greatest Showman
Another category that doesn’t seem to give anybody much hints. Personally I’m cheering for “Stand Up for Something”, ’cause Diane Warren is inching closer and closer to that Randy Newman number of nomination without a win, but it seems like “Coco” and “The Greatest Showman” songs have pulled ahead. Both are penned by former recent winners and both songs are popular. “This is Me” seems to be everywhere lately. There’s no obvious musical in the mix or something that outright screams it must win, so I’m going with the trend.
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Art Director’s Guild went Period Film for “The Shape of Water” beating both Darkest Hour” and “Dunkirk” while Fantasy Film went for “Blade Runner” so sorry Sarah & Katie. Between those two, I think it’s close but “The Shape of Water” is a lot more popular than “Blade Runner 2049” is and that’s guaranteed to get rewarded.
Best Short Film (Animated): Revolting Rhymes
I’m really worried that “Dear Basketball”‘s gonna win this, but I actually saw that short and three of the other nominees, that just doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe I’m being blind here but…- “Garden Party” would be my vote but I tend to know to pick the most ambitious and elaborate of the shorts, as well as entertaining one, so I’m going out on a limb here and taking “Revolting Rhymes”.
Best Short Film (Live Action): DeKalb Elementary
When did Oscar voting start? 20th? When was the Parkland shooting? The 14th? Yeah, I’m not screwing with this, I’m going with the one about the school shooting. Maybe “The Silent Child” or “My Nephew Emmett”‘s in the mix, but I’m not thinking too deeply on this one; I’m taking the most relevant nominee.
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Editors Guild is a bit divided here between “Blade Runner 2049” and “Dunkirk”. “Blade Runner” I suspect is a little too quiet to win for Sound, plus just as a general rule, especially when it’s open to the wider Academy for a vote, when it’s Sound Editing, they lean towards the loudest film, and that’s usually the War movie.
Best Sound Mixing: Baby Driver
Sound Mixing, usually goes to the same as Sound Editing, unless, there’s a musical around. Now, “Dunkirk” won the CAS Award this year, but, I’m gonna take a gamble here, ’cause there is one movie with a lot of music that’s quite integral to the story, and that’s “Baby Driver”. So, I’m taking a chance on this one and going with “Baby Driver”. (BTW, this comparison Editing goes to War films, Mixing goes to Musical, make absolutely no sense when you look up the jobs of Sound Editors and Sound Mixers, but we go with it.)
Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes
Most awards at the Visual Effects Society Awards split between “Blade Runner 2049” and “War for the Planet of the Apes”. Everybody’s a bit reluctant to predict “War…” because “Planet of the Apes” hasn’t done well in this category, getting nominated every year but then losing to something more popular. I’m tempted to think that again and go with “Blade Runner 2049” just because that’s the most nominated of the bunch, but- I don’t know, last year, they went with “The Jungle Book” and the year before that, “Ex Machina” was a surprise winner over three BP nominees and “Star Wars….”. Maybe the trends have broken in this category?
Best Writing (Adapted): Call Me By Your Name
Don’t overthink it again, “Call Me By Your Name” is the only Best Picture nominee in the group, and three of the other nominees have only this one nomination, you have to go back to 2004 to see a non-BP nominee win at either Screenplay category and that was “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” getting an upset win, and to see a film win a Writing category with only a Writing nomination, you gotta go back to the ’50s with “Designing Women” winning, and it’s never happened in the Adapted Screenplay category. Plus they want to give it to James Ivory, who I can’t imagine wouldn’t become the oldest winner ever with this win. If there’s an upset maybe “Mudbound”, but boy that’s the stretch and a half. Maybe to honor Scott Frank, “Logan” could be a player, but I think it needed a lot more to get in and be a player here.
Best Writing (Original): Get Out
This is the one I’m worried about. I think we all have “The Big Sick” out of contention, easily, and I think “The Shape of Water” is probably out considering the small plagiarism claims that’s out there in the ether haunting over it. Um, Greta Gerwig could pull this off, but most the winners have been split between “Get Out” and “Three Billboards…”. “Three Billboards…” has done better in this category, everywhere, but America. It won the Golden Globe, but that’s the Foreign Press, “Get Out” won at WGA but “Three Billboards…” wasn’t eligible there, but it was at Critics Choice where “Get Out” won, “Three Billboards…” beat it at BAFTA…- They’re both one and two, by my counts for Picture…- I said whoever wins this wins Picture,…. but….- maybe they don’t.
Taylor’s Predictions:
Best Picture: The Shape of Water
At this point, it’s hard to bet against The Shape of Water for best picture, so I’m going to make the easy choice. I think there’s something to be said for Three Billboards, Lady Bird or even possibly Get Out becoming a dark horse for best picture. But like many categories this year, it’s The Shape of Water‘s trophy to loose.
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Gary Oldman – The Darkest Hour
Pretty much a lock at this point.
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Francis McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Also a lock, although Sally Hawkins could possibly squeeze out the win.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
There’s a bit of controversy circling Rockwell’s character recently, but he’s well loved in the community so this pick makes the most sense here.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalfe is definitely a dark horse here, but if critics awards to this point have been accurate, it’s Janney’s award to loose.
Best Animated Feature Film: Coco
I haven’t seen the film yet, but Pixar is almost always a lock in this category.
Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins – Blade Runner 2049
Time to give Deakins his oscar.
Best Costume Design: Mark Bridges – The Phantom Thread
Makes sense that Academy voters would acknowledge a movie about costumes with a costume design award.
Best Directing: Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water
There’s no other choice here from a voter perspective, and Del Toro deserves this after a wonderful career so far.
Best Documentary: Icarus
Best Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Best Editing: I, Tonya
This is a tough race, but for me it’s between Baby Driver and I, Tonya. Baby Driver could come in and steal the award, but the latter was much more creative in using editing to tell it’s story in surprising ways.
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Make-up and Hairstyling: Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick – The Darkest Hour
Let’s be real here, The Darkest Hour will win this, no doubt.
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
I could see Zimmer coming and stealing the award for Dunkirk, but The Shape of Water’s score is just more memorable, and I could see voters thinking the same way.
Best Original Song: Mystery of Love – Call Me By Your Name
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Blade Runner 2049 is also deserving of the award, but the production design for The Shape of Water is ridiculously detailed and far more memorable.
Best Short Film (Animated): Revolting Rhymes
Best Short Film (Live Action): The Silent Child
Best Sound Editing: Baby Driver
The most unique part of that movie, I see voters thinking the same way.
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
The variety of sounds that the film utilizes in it’s mix makes this an easy way to acknowledge the film’s technical achievements.
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
War for the Planet of the Apes could easily win here, but weta has don this before and been rewarded for it.
Best Writing (Adapted): Molly’s Game
Best Writing (Original): Get Out
This is a category that will go to either Lady Bird or Get Out. Both won’t win any of the major awards, but voters are surely looking to acknowledge both films, the question is which one? My gut tells me Get Out, considering the film’s social relevance.
Chris’ Predictions:
Best Picture: The Shape of Water
Honestly I feel that The Shape of Water should win just about every category it’s nominated for just because I loved it that much. I know it will not win all categories but I have a feeling it’s going to be the biggest winner of the night.
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Usually when some goes through a drastic appearance physically, they win. Yes it’s makeup but he totally pulls off the character…from what I’ve seen in the trailer.
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Frances McDormand – Three Billiards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I just know that she won the Golden Globe for the same award and usually those are good predictors in who will take home gold at the Oscars. I also wouldn’t be mad if Saorise Ronan takes this one. Only if I lose this competition I will.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Once again, it was a great film in every aspect.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Allison Janney – I, Tonya
This film was an underdog and even though it’s nominated for some categories, I still feel it’s underrated. Allison Janney played Tonya’s mother in a multidimensional way.
Best Animated Feature Film: Coco
Coco made just about everybody cry and it was beautiful from the plot to the visuals.
Best Cinematography: The Shape of Water
Best Costume Design: Mark Bridges – Phantom Thread
Best Directing: Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water
Guillermo Del Toro is one of the most underrated directors. He finds a way to make creatures menacing and yet beautiful. They don’t make films like The Shape of Water often. It was pure art.
Best Documentary: Last Men in Aleppo
Best Documentary Short: Edith+Eddie
Best Editing: Dunkirk
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Make-up and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: Remember Me – Coco
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Short Film (Animated): Lou
Best Short Film (Live Action): My Nephew Emmett
Best Sound Editing: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Best Writing (Adapted): Call Me By Your Name
As much as I want The Disaster Artist or Logan to win, Call Me By Your Name has been talked about a lot more than the others in this category. Also the allegations surrounding the star of The Disaster Artist pretty much rule out that win. When it comes to Logan, the academy is notorious for not giving awards of this magnitude to comic book based movies.
Best Writing (Original): Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I really want The Big Sick or Get Out to win this category but once again, the ones being talked about in this category are Three Billboards and Lady Bird. I feel it’s pretty 50/50 on this. The only reason I didn’t pick my favorite film of the year (The Shape of Water) is because of the rumors that the film is possibly plagiarized from a play. If that is the case, it’s hardly “original” but it’s still a beautiful film.
Kristyn’s Predictions:
Best Picture: The Shape of Water
This was a particularly hard category to pick, as it is possible the Academy could go out on a limb and choose something outside of the box with “Get Out” or lean towards “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” or “Dunkirk”, but I think Guillermo Del Toro’s “The Shape Of Water” is going to take it home.
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Daniel Day-Lewis “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Day-Lewis is almost a no-brainer for this category, since it is my opinion that the Academy will honor his last role, but then again whenever Denzel Washington is up it is going to be a tough race!
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Francis McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Again, this is another tough category, but McDormand’s performance was brilliant in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”, but I also have to give an honorable shout-out to both Sally Hawkins and Saoirse Rown for their respective performances in both “The Shape Of Water” and “Lady Bird”.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Christopher Plummer – All The Money In The Word
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
Best Animated Feature Film: Loving Vincent
Best Cinematography: The Shape of Water
Best Costume Design: The Shape of Water
Best Directing: Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water
Best Documentary: Last Men In Aleppo
Best Documentary Short: Traffic Stop
Best Editing: Baby Driver
Best Foreign Language Film: The Insult
Best Make-up and Hairstyling: Wonder
Best Original Score: Dunkirk
Best Original Song: “Remember Me” from Coco
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Short Film (Animated): Negative Space
Best Short Film (Live Action): The Silent Child
Best Sound Editing: Baby Driver
Best Sound Mixing: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Best Writing (Adapted): Molly’s Game
Best Writing (Original): Get Out
Pete’s Predictions:
Best Picture: Lady Bird
I like this movie. It’s not my favorite but its my favorite on this list. Sure The Shape of Water is the clear favorite after already taking home awards from other shows, but I have a gut feeling Lady Bird may walk away with this. Although my gut instinct has routinely steer my off course.
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
I dunno. This was one movie and one performance I did not care to watch this year. I heard Oldman is great. Has he won in awhile? Has he ever won? I dunno, but I’m hearing his name a lot so I’ll take the safe bet with this pick.
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Francis McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
This was one of my favorite films last year. McDormand gave an unbelievable performance as mother looking for vengeance. She’s alway fantastic and this year I think she walks away with a statue.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The most unlikable of characters played by one of the most likable actors results in a stomach churning emotional rollercoaster. Rockwell, Sam walks away with his first Oscar here.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
I’m hearing an awful lot whispers about Allison Janney winning. I quiet those whispers and I think Metcalf arguably deserves it more. Janney was fun and over-the-top. Metcalf played a real character (Although Janney was actually portraying a real person).
Best Animated Feature Film: Coco
It’s hard to imagine Coco not winning here. If Boss Baby wins there is no god in a very funny way.
Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins – Blade Runner 2049
If the great Roger Deakins doesn’t walk away with his FIRST EVER OSCAR WIN there is no god.
Best Costume Design: Mark Bridges – The Phantom Thread
A movie about making cloths in a European country will no doubt win best costume design at the Oscars.
Best Directing: Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water
Guillermo Del Toro is the frontrunner here. He did an amazing job on this film directing the actors, and putting together a beautiful piece of cinema.
Best Documentary: Icarus, Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
This movie is insane. I’m not going to even talk about it. It’s on Netflix. Go watch it. I did. That’s why I’m picking it here.
Best Documentary Short: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Frank Stiefel
Random pick here. Didn’t have a chance to catch any of these.
Best Editing: Dunkirk, Lee Smith
Dope editing in a movie built on its dope editing.
Best Foreign Language Film: The Square (Sweden)
Sure.
Best Make-up and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
I think they used some makeup on Gary Olman as he looks amazing as Churchill. To be fair though, Gary Oldman is a chameleon and can inhabit many-a-form.
Best Original Score: Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
Hans is great.
Best Original Song: “Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
I started listening to Common in high school. I like Common.
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water, Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau
These sets were bonkers.
Best Short Film (Animated): Garden Party, Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon
Random selection.
Best Short Film (Live Action): The Silent Child, Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
Random.
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk, Alex Gibson, Richard King
Cool.
Best Sound Mixing: Blade Runner 2049, Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
Probably.
Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes, Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist
You believe the apes are real. Or at the very least you forget they are fake.
Best Writing (Adapted): James Ivory – Call Me by Your Name
I dunno. This isn’t exactly my favorite on this list, but maybe it’ll win. Maybe not though.
Best Writing (Original): Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonagh
Martin McDonagh is one of my favorite writers working. His scripts are always memorable. His heightened sense of reality and humor are dark and twisted. We could use more McDonagh’s (he has a brother).
Sean’s Predictions:
Best Picture: The Shape of Water
I could see Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri coming in and taking this award, especially since Martin Mcdonagh isn’t nominated for director and I believe Del Toro is a lock for that one. Still all signs point to The Shape of Water and it feels like the conservative pick.
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Gary Oldman – The Darkest Hour
The only person giving Oldman a run for his money would be Daniel Day-Lewis and the fact that he just gave his last performance. But I think it is fair to say Oldman’s portrayal of Winston Churchill was more demanding and basically screams oscars. The man deserves it and this is the opportunity to recognize that.
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Francis McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Again all signs point towards McDormand and she is personally my favorite performance on this list. Having said that I wouldn’t rule out what Sally Hawkins achieved in a silent role or the fact that the Academy is clearly dying to award Saroise Ronan as she has now accepted her third nomination by the age of 24.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Best Animated Feature Film: Coco
I honestly can not imagine living in a world where Coco doesn’t win this award.
Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins – Blade Runner 2049
Best Costume Design: Mark Bridges – The Phantom Thread
Its a movie meticulously crafted focusing on the meticulous crafting of clothes. I honestly think this will be one of the only awards The Phantom Thread will take home despite being nominated for 6 in total.
Best Directing: Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water
Best Documentary: Face Places
Best Documentary Short: Heaven in a Traffic Jam on The 405
Best Editing: Baby Driver
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Make-up and Hairstyling: Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick – The Darkest Hour
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: This is Me – The Greatest Showman
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Short Film (Animated): Dear Basketball
Kobe!
Best Short Film (Live Action): Dekalb Elementary
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Blade Runner 2049
Best Visual Effects: War for The Planet of The Apes
Best Writing (Adapted): Call me by Your Name
Best Writing (Original): Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I really wanted to give my vote on this one to The Big Sick, as I found this to be one of the most heartwarming stories both on and off camera of the year. Despite my own fondness of the story I truly believe McDonagh crafted the better story and as I previously mentioned Mcdonagh’s lack of presence amongst the Directors could up his chances in other categories.
Jason’s Predictions:
Best Picture: Lady Bird
The right film, at the right time.
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Gary Oldman – The Darkest Hour
Way overdue, which is an Academy staple.
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Francis McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Had this one pegged right form the beginning.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
He’s a fantastic actor and it’s been building up all year. No way this isn’t the vote.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Allison Janney – I, Tonya
She just needed the right project and she got it here.
Best Animated Feature Film: Coco
The smart/easy choice.
Best Cinematography: Rachel Morrison – Mudbound
The sneaky way to honor a good film.
Best Costume Design: Jacquelin Durran – Beauty and the Beast
Perhaps the best part of the film.
Best Directing: Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Right projct, right time, right director.
Best Documentary: Strong Island
Strong subject matter.
Best Documentary Short: Heroin(e)
Important and timely.
Best Editing: Dunkirk
This will be a win for Nolan, since he’ll be missing out on everything else.
Best Foreign Language Film: The Insult
A serious and difficult subject matter makes this the obvious choice.
Best Make-up and Hairstyling: Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick – The Darkest Hour
Strongest part of the film, so obvious choice here.
Best Original Score: Dunkirk
It’s been a good time for Zimmer, so let’s give it up to him.
Best Original Song: This is Me – The Greatest Showman
Come on, you gotta give Jackman something.
Best Production Design: Beauty and the Beast
Deserves more and this will have to do.
Best Short Film (Animated): Negative Space
From what I’ve seen, which is only a few parts, it’s really good.
Best Short Film (Live Action): Watu Wote/All of Us
Timely subject matter
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Mercy award, but deserved.
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Naturally. Come on.
Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes
Slam dunk and it won previously. Should be a given.
Best Writing (Adapted): Mudbound
It’ll be the upset of the night and deserved.
Best Writing (Original): The Shape of Water
GDT deserves this one, but it’s the wrong year.
